Ran GOOG through a personal scoring tool I built (6 weighted signals, end-of-day data). ended up at 47/100, which lands in HOLD.
the stuff that looks expensive:
\- P/I of 2.5x. that's in the top 10% of its own history (median is 2.0).
\- Monthly RSI at 76.7. over 70 is overbought
\- Analyst consensus target is $418.47 (66 analysts) so only \~5.4% upside baked in
\- Most recent quarter FCF was 10.12B which is below the prior 3-quarter average. trailing number looks great but the trend might be cooling
the stuff that's still good:
\- LTM FCF of 64.43B with a 15.2% margin. a lot of cash relative to revenue
\- Revenue grew 17.5% YoY to 422.57B
\- News sentiment is +0.20 across 50 articles
Business is doing fine, maybe better than fine. but you're paying for it. limited upside on consensus, expensive vs its own history, overbought on momentum.
for me that means hold, not adding here. if it pulled back 10-15% the picture shifts a lot. anyone actually adding at these levels or waiting for a pullback?
not financial advice obviously, just sharing what the tool said.