ARS Pharma (SPRY)—are the insiders right, or is the market right?

ARS Pharma stock went up over the last couple years thanks to its needle-free EpiPen getting FDA approval and data showing follow-up doses actually work better than EpiPens.

But insiders were selling left and right, which can be rational diversification (you can’t jet ski on your stock options), but also a red flag about what management thinks the company is worth.

The stock has fallen substantially this year, and lots of people are betting it will fall further.

However, there are some key reasons I think it might head back up.

1. The steady stream of insider sales has entirely dried up over the past six months. This makes me think that management believes that a profitable quarter is closer than outsiders think.
2. There has also been a variety of good news: international approvals and potential treatment for chronic hives.

ARS is currently worth 800-odd million dollars, but I think it could be worth $2 billion within a few few years.

This would be a world where ARS captures a significant chunk of the autoinjector market share (which peaked at \~$1B), but also sustains significant margin compression in the process. Earning $100M per year and a PE of 20 would lead to the $2B number.