Yo everyone. I've been running around Asia making chicken videos on YouTube. So you KNOW I'm a damn good bet when it comes to financial markets. I even have a CFA thingy-majig.
Okay, so how do I this market is going up and to the right? Aside from the fact that it ALWAYS DOES ANYWAY? Check this out.
Ask yourself real quick. It's 2030 and there are three scenarios:
Scenario A: The SP500 sits at 8,500 after slightly recovering from a 40% pullback in late 2026/2027. Average home price has also slightly recovered and sits at a tad over $500k. Unemployed edged slightly up and inflation has run hot so the average consumer is struggling.
Scenario B: The SP500 sits at 6,500 after a pullback due to the AI boom unwinding. Private credit has been schlacked and semi industry is overleveraged on more expensive debt. The average home has fallen to around $400k as the economy has slowed. The average consumer still struggles but doesn't feel left behind.
Scenario C: Blast off. AI revolutionizes productivity, most people are useless. The SP500 rockets to over 10,000 and the average US home is over $750k, with the average home in desireable MSA's now standing at well over $1.5m. The average consumer is effectively priced out of life at this point and while they don't have to worry about hunger, they're basically just pawns in the game.
Now think about history, which scenario is the most likely? Obviously the one that screws over your average Joe the most.
So C it is!
Positions:
1,000 shares long $RDDT.
500 shares long $CRCL.
500 shares long $PM (tobacco will keep the people happy).
500 shares long CATL (300750).