UK retail trader on T212 ISA. £33k of play money that i am looking to profit from in the next 5 - 6 weeks. Looking for honest critique before Monday open.
Thesis: Datadog's +28% earnings reaction last Thursday signaled a software re rating after months of AI kills SaaS fears.
Combined with broad based AI hardware strength (semis pumping Friday), I think AI as a sector is being bid but with a clear split between AI beneficiaries and per seat SaaS losers (Cloudflare's, 24% on AI driven layoffs, Salesforce/Workday/ServiceNow all bleeding).
Basket - concentrated, \~£26k deployed, £7k cash:
Phase 1 (Monday):
NVDA £6k (May 20 earnings, trim 75% on May 19 pre print)
AVGO £4k (custom AI silicon, less binary)
SNOW £4k (cleanest DDOG analog, late May earnings)
VRT £3k (pure AI infrastructure, no earnings catalyst)
Phase 2 (May 22, after NVDA + WDAY signals):
CRWD £3k (June 2 earnings)
PANW £2k (June 2 earnings)
MDB £2k (early June earnings)
IOT £2k (June 4, physical world AI, replaces WDAY)
Skipped: CRM/WDAY/NOW (per seat SaaS at risk from Cloudflare style AI driven workforce reductions),
SNDK/MU/MRVL/KXIAY (parabolic, already had their runs entries above analyst targets). (long term holds)
Risk management:
Portfolio half exit: 12% drawdown over 2 consecutive closes (avoids volatility shake-outs)
Portfolio full exit: 15%
Single name cut: 20% from entry
Trim trigger: any name +30% - sell half, let rest ride
Hard exit: Friday June 12 regardless of P&L (pre G7, captures all earnings catalysts)
What I'm worried about:
Entering after Friday's run - AVGO/CRWD/PANW already extended
NVDA earnings May 20 is binary even with the trim
Macro stack is loaded: Iran negotiations, SCOTUS tariff ruling expected by June, Fed Chair transition, midterm year drawdown patterns
Per seat SaaS narrative might spread to my AI software names if WDAY misses
What I'm not / cant do:
No leverage (T212 ISA can't anyway)
No options
No averaging down on losers
No chasing the semi pumps
Honest critique welcome. Specifically interested in:
Sector mix too concentrated in cyber + AI hardware?
Earnings cluster risk on June 2-4 (5 of 7 holdings report in 4 days)
Whether the 12% half-exit is still too tight for this volatility regime
Names I'm missing or overweighting
june 12 deadline? (I need to force myself to Hard exits so I don't hold bags for too long) and I feel a correction coming it could be during this 5 week period, buts thats all part of the game