Chips stock are following pre-COVID pattern of concentrated run up in tech then collapse. Longs confuse price action from momentum trading algos as being meaningful with confidence.
The math bulls fail to understand is that an entire economy can't be held up by tech. Wages are stagnant for most areas ex healthcare. Source: [https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/wage-growth-tracker](https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/wage-growth-tracker)
Job growth is also stagnant, sources are on X.
AI spending is supposed to be the reason we are bullish, yet no one can explain or hypothesize how $ trillion in AI spending, which is crowding out workers in big tech, has any benefit to worker or consumer. Layoffs seen yet are not even related to AI job displacement, just investment. This is strong evidence of a self perpetuating bubble.
Consumer are still 70% of spending, and big tech will eventually tap out. This brings us to the next point: Everything done by this administration & big tech is a tax on consumers. They pay for higher oil, higher memory and RAM, higher electricity. In essence, the consumer is being taxed to pay for AI infrastructure & the trump administrations fiascos at almost every turn
The common refrain is "but 50% of the spending comes from the rich", the problem is that 50% of the products don't come from the rich. One rich person only needs one bed, one fridge, and so on. The wealthy have a lower propensity to spend money than the poor.
Polling shows population is turning against AI, which is why large tech companies have started trying to AstroTurf AI on tiktok (proven on X already).
When the investment dries up, this unstable market should collapse. The most likely medium term risk, disregarding Hormuz, is political. The extreme concentration of wealth in big tech will likely spark calls for increasingly corporate taxes and individual taxes. Lower corporate taxes no longer has any legitimate justification when companies are blowing up earnings.