I have a substantial amount of cash I'd have already invested in a total U.S. stock market index fund like VTSAX, *if it weren't for the Iran War*.
But, due to the war and potential oil shock on the global economy, I've been waiting. I get that I'm trying to time the market; no lectures needed on this.
My plan is to opportunistically invest on a predetermined schedule, accelerating my buying schedule if/when prices do substantially fall.
But how long do I draw out the buying schedule? If stock index funds are going to decline (if only 10%) due to the oil shock and resulting demand destruction, what are people's thoughts about how soon that's likely to occur (if it does)? For example, is it reasonable to assume that if the market hasn't substantially declined by October, then it probably *won't* decline, at least due to the effects of the war?
I realize there are countless factors at play, and the future is unknown. I'm just curious what people are thinking, and *how* they're thinking about this.