White girls gave up lattes and leggings but will NEVER give up their Birkenstocks ($BIRK YOLO + DD inside)

US retail sales are in, the US Consumer (white girls) don't give a shit about higher oil prices. I think it's time for consumer discretionary to bounce back. I've been watching this shit fall and waiting for it to strengthen so the beaten-up stocks in this industry can make a comeback.

BIRK has been on my radar since December where it got fucked by a stronger EURO and lowered guidance. I've been down a rabbit hole since and I believe the current price is a great time and the next earnings has the potential for a lot of catalysts to materialize. And before y'all scroll down, just know, Michael Burry himself is long on BIRK, so I think I'm on to something.

**LULU AND SBUX ARE BLEEDING. BIRK IS THE NEW WHITE GIRL STOCK PLAY.**

Every white girl consumer discretionary play is getting destroyed right now. Lulu is lu-sing customers. Starbucks closing stores. But Birkenstock is growing. It's breaking into new territories in the asia markets. (Thats right, Asian girls are next). The sandal, is just a timeless part of her wardrobe and it aint going nowhere. The Clogs are trending too.

Personal Anecdote: My girlfriend got her pair of birks stolen at her Pilates class.... and while she cut out the lulu's and Starbucks to save money, she absolutely couldn't stand the thought of not having a pair of Birks. And guess what, my girlfriend's boyfriends instantly bought her another pair. And that's when it hit me, Birk has a sticky customer.

Also, this company is 250 YEARS OLD. They've been keeping this shit going since colonial times.

**THE COMPANY FUNDAMENTALS**

FY2025: €2.1B revenue. 18% constant currency growth. 38 million pairs sold. Gross margins nearly 59%. EBITDA margins 31.8%. EPS Growth over the next year, about 18.8% and 15.7% for the next 5 years

The valuation? 14x forward P/E. PEG at 0.9. EV/EBITDA at \~11-12x — compressed from 19x just a year ago.

This is a luxury brand with a sticky customer base that is growing but has a value stock multiple because this stock got beat down on tariffs that are now legally dead. Oh, and they will definitely be getting tariff refunds.

Now the last piece I will add here, there's a 25% short float. That's pretty high for a stock that has a lot of growth potential imo. I won't go any deeper than that since I dont want this post deleted, but I think short covering is definitely on the table here. this is not a focal point Mods, just an observation.

There's been a lot of Analyst upgrades this quarter and there's a tariff refund that will likely be discussed on their next earnings call. I really like the current price and I see a lot of upside from here.

**WHY ITS CHEAP**

Two things worked against it in 2025, Tariffs and FX headwinds. FX headwinds does remain the biggest risk I see in this stock. A weakening US Dollar hurts BIRK's bottom line. Sales are in USD mostly, but their expenses are in EUR. So if EUR strengthens & USD weakens, Birk gets fuk'd. However, the FX headwinds have largely been priced in from company lowering guidance in December. USD was stronger in March, so this may not be as much of a concern in the coming Earnings and it may even beat December's guidance.

Tariffs really hammered Birk last year, but things are looking a lot better. Supreme court ruled them illegal. As of yesterday, BIRK is eligible for tariff refunds. The new set of Tariffs (section 122) actually is cheaper for BIRK, the prior tariffs were at 20%, section 122 is a flat 15% across the board to EU. Luckily, 302 and 232 don't touch German sandals. And 122 is set to expire by July 24th. New tariffs after that are speculated to focus on car manufacturing from Germany, which may not hit Sandals. Nothing is manufactured in China, its all made in Germany, so there is potential for Birk to dodge retaliatory tariffs, after July 24th, since Trump's tarrifs seem to be more targeted around Chinese manufactured goods (like NIKE's shoes) or Car manufacturing / steel related products.

In addition to that, they are likely to receive a tax refund for the tariff hit they took in 2025. Little to say, that is very bullish imo, and I am not sure how priced in that is yet. April 20th is when registration for refunds began, so I do believe we will be hearing some news on Tariff refund on the next earnings call on May 13th.

**NOTABLE INVESTORS IN ON THIS STOCK**

Michael Burry is in this stock. How much? Idk but if anyone pays for substack, feel free to let others know in the comments. I just know he's calling the stock cheap and he's endorsed Rebound Capital's thesis, which you can read here (much better than my DD): [Deep Dive: Birkenstock ($BIRK) - Rebound Capital](https://reboundcapital.substack.com/p/deep-dive-birkenstock-birk). Point72 also has a very large stake that they doubled in December.

The CEO of BIRK is increasing his ownership. Compared to other retail stocks and apparel stocks, his ownership ranks as second highest at 1.65%. He increased ownership after February Earnings.

Largest owner is Bernard Arnault (10th richest man in the world) who owns it through his Catterton Management investment firm.

Many Analysts have upgraded this stock in the last quarter based on field research and demand trends they have been seeing in March. Most notably imo was Seaport, who sees Birkenstocks demand increasing. Their rating upgrade helped push the stock to $40 in premarket last week. This gives me confidence Birk will beat its earnings next Month.

Lastly, for what its worth, a majority of analysts covering this stock have it as a buy with targets from $50 -$75.

That's a lot of upside potential, with value stock ratios for a growth stock, and a high short float. I really like this set up. Personally, hoping this cracks $60+ after earnings.

TLDR:

* US RETAIL SALES STRONG
* WHITE GIRLS LOVE BIRK
* STICKY CUSTOMERS AND GROWING SALES
* TARIFF PRESSURES EASING; POTENTIAL REFUND COMING,
* GUIDANCE MIGHT GET SLIGHTLY REVISED
* DOWN FROM $65 HIGH, RATIOS ARE VERY ATTRACTIVE (and overly shorted imo)
* BURY IS IN THIS, other big players are also in this.

Not financial Advice.

Disclaimer: My GF is not a white girl