**TLDR**: Softbank needs cash for massive $40 billion OpenAI loan. They will liquidate much of their ARM holdings, which, when revealed, will cause a massive selloff.
On February 27th, [it was announced](https://group.softbank/en/news/press/20260327) that Softbank had secured a $40 billion loan to make a 30 billion investment in OpenAI, with a date of execution March 27, 2026, a maturity date of March 25, 2027, and ZERO COLLATERAL.
Per the announcement, the loan will be:
>repaid in stages by the maturity date through the ***utilization of existing assets*** and other financing measures.
So within 12 months, they need to come up with $40 billion in cash by liquidating existing assets. Ok... what existing assets do they have?
Their [13F](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065521/000106299326000965/xslForm13F_X02/form13fInfoTable.xml) from December 2025, filed before the announcement (Feb 17th), shows just $15.5 billion in various stocks.
Then on March 18th, after the announcement but before they have to start making payments, they file a [Form 3 (Initial insider holdings report)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065521/000197323926000019/xslF345X06/wk-form3_1773866852.xml) announcing their 922,733,999 shares in ARM, which at the time were valued at $115 billion.
Since March 18th, ARM has been trading at double its usual volume. Its price has climbed to nearly $180, making their original stake worth 166 billion.
On May 15th, they will file their latest 13F, which goes up to March 31st. Either one of two things will have happened:
1. Softbank cashed out the full amount ($40B), selling a quarter of their shares
2. Softbank only cashed out a portion, and must race to sell the rest
Neither scenario will be good for the share price, but scenario 2 will truly nuke it,e out that Softbank is selling ARM to fullfil its obligations, and would have to liquidate nearly its entire position if it were to fall to its all-time low of $46.50.
Position: 100 short shares of ARM (i'm poor)
