HIMS up 48% in a week. The GLP-1 problem, the peptide fix, and why the timing matters

HIMS was in a tough spot. They settled with Novo Nordisk and have been shifting away from high-margin compounded GLP-1 drugs toward lower-margin branded versions. BofA cut 2026 revenue estimates and flagged the margin pressure months ago.

Then RFK Jr announced the FDA would review peptides for the 503A Bulk List, which would let compounding pharmacies produce them at scale. Advisory meetings are July 23-24.

HIMS specifically benefited because they bought a peptide manufacturing facility in California last year and the infrastructure already overlaps with GLP-1 production. They can repurpose capacity without starting over. Leerink called it a clear path to scale. One analyst straight up called HIMS "the most likely public company play for peptides at scale."

Short interest is near a record 36.6% on top of that. So the 48% move is a real catalyst plus forced short covering happening together.

Nothing is approved yet though. If those July meetings stall or the specific peptides don't make the list, a chunk of this thesis breaks.

Q1 earnings May 11 is the next big event.

Is the peptide opportunity actually big enough to replace the GLP-1 margin hole long term? Genuinely curious what people think.