Market and traders are vastly underestimating the risks here with mega cap tech earnings coming up. Specifically the software names.

I've been doing research in free time for the last week or two and have learned a lot about exactly how much GOOG, AMZN, and MSFT are spending on AI buildout. And what their current revenue growth rates are expected to be in 2026.

First off, as many have been saying, they are spending A TON on infrastructure:

* **Amazon (AMZN):** At a **0.5% FCF yield**, they are effectively spending everything they make on $200B+ annual Capex. you’re buying a massive, long-term infrastructure project.
* **Google (GOOGL):** Sitting at a **2.1% FCF yield**. They are aggressively pouring cash into a $180B infrastructure pile to defend their search dominance.
* **Microsoft (MSFT):** Yielding **1.8%**. The "Stargate" AI project is a massive cash-drag that’s turning their once-untouchable software margins into an industrial-scale hardware grind.

Amazon has been this low in free cash flow 2 other times. Both times, they were making 20%+ and in one case over 30% annual revenue growth rates. Right now, that is like 12-14% for this calendar year. And not projected to grow much faster next year.

Google has not been this cash flow weak since the early day of incorporation. Since it went cash flow positive it has never been this low. And revenue growth right now is like 14%. A blip compared to other times in their history.

Microsoft has not been this cash flow weak since 2014. And it only a couple times touched these levels. Again, growth was many times higher than it is now at that point.

These 3 have free cash flow margins typical of utilities or telecoms. Other than saying the AI build out is a "sure thing", no one is putting out concrete growth rates for this year or next as of now.