Barclays upgrades Celldex stock rating on trial enrollment progress

The firm cited increased conviction for successful Phase 3 results in chronic spontaneous urticaria and positive implications for prurigo nodularis. Barclays had previously held reservations about the value of barzolvolimab in CSU due to safety concerns and risks related to dosing-schedule changes, particularly the introduction of a loading dose in the Phase 3 program.

The firm noted that enrollment in the Phase 3 EMBARQ trial completed six months ahead of schedule, with a fourth-quarter readout expected. Barclays said the faster enrollment speaks to demand and enthusiasm for the asset.

The firm increased its probability of success for CSU to 85% from 65% and raised its peak adjusted revenue estimate to $1.4 billion from $1.0 billion. Barclays also increased its probability of success for chronic inducible urticaria to 75% from 65% and raised its peak adjusted revenue estimate to $541 million from $281 million.