**Position**
* 4 shares UPRO @ 99.16 avg
* 68.93% of port (do not ask about the other 31%)
* Open P&L: +$35.85 / +9.04%
* Stop: $105. Hard. No moving it, no "just let it breathe bro"
**The trade**
I'm long 3x leveraged SPY into a tape where every large cap with three letters and a GPU is signing nine-figure capex deals before lunch. Meta just committed another $21B to CoreWeave this morning. Amazon is stocking Lilly's weight-loss pill in kiosks like it's Red Bull. The machines are buying, the boomers are buying, and the only thing the Fed is doing is watching.
If you believe the AI capex cycle has another quarter in it, the cleanest way to express that without picking which hyperscaler ate the most glue is long index. And if you want 3x the pain with 3x the upside, that's UPRO.
**Why UPRO and not SPY or futures**
* SPY: boring, I'm not a pension fund
* ES: I don't have the margin and I like sleeping
* SPXL: same thing, Direxion just has worse swag
* UPRO: 3x daily reset, tight spreads, and the decay only kills you if you buy chop. I did not buy chop. I bought the breakout.
**The stop**
105 is \~3% below spot. On 3x that means SPX needs to drop \~1% through my line to clip me. Below 105 the chart loses the short-term structure I bought on and I'd rather eat a $15 loss than sit here arguing with the tape for two weeks.
If we hit 105, I'm out. No averaging down. No "maybe just half." Out.
**Risks**
* AI capex trade finally gets the cold shower. Meta's $21B got a lukewarm reception this morning and if the next hyperscaler print misses on margins, the whole complex rolls
* Hot CPI or labor print drags yields back above 4.5% and the multiple expansion thesis dies in a ditch
* Leverage decay if we chop sideways for a week. UPRO bleeds in range-bound tape
* I have four shares. Four. If I'm right, I buy a nice dinner. If I'm wrong, I buy a less nice dinner
**Positioning**
$432 notional, \~$1,300 equivalent SPY exposure at 3x. Stop at 105 = \~$12 max loss from here, \~$15 from avg. R:R at this point is basically free roll because I'm already sitting on +$35.
Not financial advice. I'm a guy with four shares of a leveraged ETF. Take trading cues from me at your own risk.
