Brent Yolo: Oil Futures are Still Trading Dramatically Lower Than Spot Prices

**After Tuesday’s insanity my oil position lost about $18,000 value in about 2 hours.** A few of the kind and thoughtful members of this sub told me I was going to lose everything and have no choice but to work at a fast food restaurant.

With my hard work ethic and excellent customer service I would make a fantastic fast food employee, but there is only a small chance they are correct.

**Due to the actual mechanism of oil settlement, Brent Oil Futures will likely climb significantly over the next 21 days.** Spot oil prices are notoriously tight-lipped and hard to pin down, but the pieces of data I can gather indicate that spot Brent is still trading between $124-140 a barrel.

**That means that June futures can trade in insane directions but on the final day somebody has to pay the piper.** Due to manipulation, tweets, and rumors the oil futures could hit -$20 (like they did during covid) or 1 Bajillion dollars. Either way the arbitrage of actual traders looking for physical deliver, cash settlement, or Exchange For Physical (EFP) will drive the price towards the real spot price in the final days of trading.

**Now there is a real possibility the straits may open and world peace and we can all be friends**, but those barrels tied up in the Persian Gulf will not move until the coast is 100% clear and the flow will be a trickle at first. In the mean time manufacturers need real barrels of oil or they may have to close their plants and refineries.

Unless my resolve should fail me, and so far it has not, I will hold until that final day no matter what the market manipulators may try.

**Positions and disclosure:** I am a retail trader not a financial or oil pro. I am Long Oil and Short Carvana (CVNA) via put options.

**Bflo-Retail**