\*\*TLDR\*\*
\- WTI at $112.06 beat Brent at $109.05 for first time in years. Hormuz chaos plus US shale bottleneck doing work.
\- Cushing inventory squeeze is real. Refiners can't move crude fast enough, contango flattening out.
\- Long $XLE Jan calls, shorting $UNG because nat gas is getting wrecked while crude runs.
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WTI just inverted Brent. That doesn't happen unless something's actually broken on the supply side stateside. Strait of Hormuz closed to real traffic, Iranian assets offline, and somehow US crude is still the expensive barrel. Classic.
Cushing's sitting at emergency lows. Refineries are running flat out but pipelines can't move product fast enough to the coast. Contango's collapsing which means storage arbitrage is dead. This is pure supply constipation (not speculation).
\## Why it matters
Trump's talking about "taking the oil" from Hormuz like it's a video game. Europe's freaking out. India just imported 90% more Russian crude in March because Middle East supply is cooked. That's real barrels gone.
$XOM, $CVX, Continental all ramping hard. Hamm's not pumping more just to be patriotic. He smells $120 WTI. I'd be sizing in.
Natural gas got absolutely dumped though. Henry Hub down 2% to $2.81 while oil runs 7%. That spread's not sustainable. Either nat gas catches a bid when heating season temps drop or crude pulls back. Probably neither happens soon.
Long $XLE into weakness, buying dips under $85. WTI breaks $115 and we're talking $90+ on the sector. Short-term $UNG puts because the gas market's regarded right now and vol's cheap.
Two-week window the headlines keep mentioning could blow this apart. Ceasefire talk dies, Hormuz stays closed, and we're running on fumes. That's $125 oil easy.
Positions: 750 shares $XLE at $84.30, 15x $USO $115c May expiry, short 5x $UNG $2.50p April, 100 shares $XOM