Seeing a lot of “buy the dip?” posts lately and honestly… I don’t think this is a clean setup either way.
The pullback is real - S&P is down 9-10% from highs, VIX is still above 20, and oil hanging around $105 isn't doing anyone any favors. We're also still sitting below the 200 day MA, which historically isn't where clean rallies kick off. 10Y yield at 4.3% means financing conditions are still tight.
But it's not all bad. Jobs came in strong, unemployment is still low, and there's no actual recession signal yet. So it's this annoying middle ground where the risk is real but the economy isn't falling apart.
My plan for now: starting small. Maybe 20-25% of what I'd normally put in, keeping the rest in cash in case there's another leg down.
Things I want to see before adding more:
* Oil back under $100
* S&P reclaiming the 200 day and actually holding it
* VIX cooling off for real, not just a one day bounce
* Earnings not being a disaster
Positioning-wise I'm leaning into energy, utilities, and defense. Staying away from airlines/cruise lines (fuel costs are brutal) and anything high multiple that bleeds out when rates stay elevated.
Feels like one of those setups where going all in is dumb but waiting for perfect clarity means you miss it. So I'm stuck in the middle like everyone else.
Curious where others are landing- buying, waiting, or hedging?