Posts  / VOO  / #POST-223270
REDDIT

The "inflation" argument is so wrong

S
Mar 29, 2026 · 03:53

I've been calling the VOO decline purely based on the Buffett indicator ratio. It just so happens that Trump goes full regard at the same time the S&P almost hit 7,000. I don't think the earnings justified the VOO, so I sold in Dec.


Anyways, what bothers me is when people talk about not investing and they bring up this bogeyman of "inflation". Inflation is real, but you have to compare assets. For example, if inflation is 4%, then YoY, your dollars are technically worth 4% less. But if you put that money into VOO in March 2026, you're already down 7%. Let's say it drops 20%. Even if inflation comes out to 7%, you being scared into investing to "beat inflation" makes 0 sense when the losses dwarf inflation. On the other hand, if you look at a massively undervalued stock such as General Mills, you get value (it's down like 40%) and dividends. At least at that point, you are comparing are buying into a less inflated asset. This is probably why defensive stocks like CPD did so well in 2022.


Bottom line, comparing USD inflation to a heavily inflated asset like ADBE (down 60%) or PLTR (P/E of 225) is so wrong and moronic. If you really cared about inflation that much, you'd buy something safe and stable like a CD, not put your money in the market where it'll lose 2/3/5x whatever inflation is.