What actually happened if you bought SPY on the worst day of every recent panic

Every few months this sub gets flooded with "this time is different" posts. I got curious what actually happened if you bought SPY at the worst possible moment during each recent panic and just held for 12 months.

**COVID crash (Mar 2020)** - "The economy is shutting down, this is 1929"
- SPY dropped from $313 to $207 (-33.7%)
- 1 year later: $368. That's **+77.5%** from the bottom.

**Rate hike bear market (Oct 2022)** - "The Fed is going to crash everything, recession is guaranteed"
- SPY dropped from $456 to $344 (-24.5%)
- 1 year later: $423. That's **+22.9%** from the bottom.

**Japan carry trade unwind (Aug 2024)** - "This is the big one, global contagion"
- SPY dropped from $560 to $513 (-8.4%)
- 1 year later: $628. That's **+22.5%** from the bottom.

The pattern isn't subtle. Even buying at the literal worst day each time, you were up double digits 12 months later. The bigger the panic, the bigger the snapback.

Now we're in the middle of another one. Iran, oil, tariffs, "this time is ACTUALLY different." Maybe it is. But the last 3 times everyone was certain about that too.

Not financial advice, just data. But next time you see a "this time is different" post, maybe pull up what SPY did 12 months after the last three panics before making any moves.