$30k YOLO on $DG puts. If this war isn’t over soon, things are going to look real ugly

\- Core customer makes <$35k/yr. Gas at $4.50+/gal eats their savings before they even walk in the door

\- Stores are rural. High gas = fewer trips. The discount doesn't matter if the drive costs more than you save

\- Management guided $7.10-7.35 EPS two days ago. That guidance assumes oil isn't at $90+. It is. Guidance is already dead

\- Every $10/bbl oil sustained for a quarter shaves \~$0.15-0.20 off EPS. Do the math on a $20+ spike

\- DG runs 20,000 stores with a massive truck fleet. Diesel eats gross margin directly. They don't have Walmart's scale to negotiate it away

\- Last time they missed on "consumer health" (2024), stock dropped 32% in a single day. Algos remember

\- If Iran drags on 5 more weeks, mid-April negative pre-announcement is on the table. Algos will front-run it to \~$105

\- 80%+ of sales are low-margin essentials now. More volume, worse margins

\- Smart money already rotating out -- Victory Capital cut 50%, Grantham Mayo cut 70%

Position: long 100 x $110 June ‘26 put contracts