$STUB – Wall Street Thinks This Is Trash… Meanwhile I’m Printing Money On It IRL

Alright you beautiful degenerates, gather around.
This is either:

1.) The dumbest thing I’ve ever posted
Or
2.) the easiest asymmetric play sitting in plain sight

I’m not some dude drawing triangles on charts.
I literally sell tickets for a living.
2025: $117k sales
2026 YTD: $107k already
Majority of that? StubHub
So yeah...

I am the order flow.

Let’s get this out of the way:
$LYV (Ticketmaster) → evil empire
$SEAT (VividSeats) → tries
$STUB (StubHub) → also hated

Everybody hates these companies but people need to buy event tickets from somewhere. Over 60% of all my resale volume moves through $STUB.

What Wall Street Thinks Is Happening:
“Bad earnings”
“Growth slowing”
“Primary ticketing failed”
“IPO flop”

Stock is down ~68% from highs.
Cool.

What Is ACTUALLY Happening (From Someone IN THE SYSTEM)

1. Buyers are buying EARLIER now
Pre-2020:
Wait until last minute
Now:
“I need tickets NOW before price goes higher”
StubHub holds cash longer
Demand is front-loaded

This means people buy tickets sooner. StubHub pays oit after the event. My mean payout period was 123 days in 2025 and 140 days in 2026. This means $STUB is sitting on our money for 4 months.

2. Prices are HIGHER (and sticking)
Blame:
Ticketmaster dynamic pricing
Taylor Swift breaking brains
Now:
People EXPECT expensive tickets
I sell tickets for MORE
Buyers don’t blink

3. Volume is NOT dying
Despite:
inflation
war headlines
recession talk
People are STILL buying tickets.

4. StubHub is where the market clears
This is the big one.
Most of my sales - StubHub
My pricing research - StubHub
Buyer trust - StubHub
Other platforms exist…
…but StubHub is the liquidity.

The Business Model (Why This Is Stupid Simple)
StubHub:
takes a cut from buyer AND seller
holds cash for months
no inventory risk

The Plot Twist Wall Street Missed
Everyone thought StubHub failed at primary ticket

Why?
Because the DOJ just told Ticketmaster:
“Open your system”
“Let others access tickets”
“Stop locking everything up”

You know what’s bullish for StubHub?
A strong Ticketmaster
Let them:
lock up venues
do the boring infrastructure
handle the relationships

StubHub just sells tickets.

The Valuation (This Is Where It Gets Dumb)
Rough numbers:
~$9B GMV flowing through
~20% take rate
~$2.7B market cap

Final Thought
You can hate:
$LYV
$SEAT
$STUB
…but at the end of the day people are buying my tickets and mostly on StubHub.

Long 10k shares.