Wti Oil down this morning to $93-$95 and Brent down to $101. My thesis is that the market is being far too complacent.
A tanker leaving the Persian Gulf for China would take 20-30 days travel time + unloading time from there. **The last tankers to leave before the war started have still not completed transit.**
With the lag time + IEA draw down + existing stocks the shit storm hasn’t made landfall. Some time next week or the week after the first tankers stranded by the straits of Hormuz will start **not** arriving in Asia.
Current middle east spots are trading 20-30 dollars over next month Us and Brent futures. That slow motion ripple effect will be hitting soon.
**Position and Disclosure**: I am a retail trader not a financial advisor. I have no insider knowledge of the oil industry. I am holding USO and BNO calls and unrelated CVNA puts and a small stock basket
BFLO-Retail