Is the oil spike actually sustainable or just another geopolitical premium?

Lately oil prices have been moving up again, mostly driven by geopolitical tensions and the risks around the Strait of Hormuz. Around 20 percent of global oil flows through that route, so even the possibility of disruption can push prices higher quickly.

But looking at previous spikes, it often feels like the market prices in worst case scenarios first and then gradually cools off once actual supply disruptions fail to materialize.

A few things make me think prices might normalize over the next couple months

\-No major economy can really sustain extremely high oil prices for long without demand destruction

\-Countries like China have already been stockpiling oil which might buffer short term supply shocks

\-Strategic reserves and spare production capacity could stabilize the market if needed

I am not necessarily expecting oil to go back to 70 quickly, but something closer to the 80 range seems plausible if the situation does not escalate further.

Right now it feels like the market has priced in tension but not full scale disruption. The real wildcard would obviously be direct attacks on production infrastructure or tanker routes.

Curious what others think. Do you see this as a temporary geopolitical premium or the start of a longer term oil rally?