This might seem late into the game with whatever crises is going on in the world right now, but I don't think the iran situation has been priced in yet.
I'm talking about - XLE
XLE is an oil and energy ETF with major holdings in the big oil companies, chevron, ExxonMobil, conoco Philips, and a bunch of others.
This ETF was actually recommended to me back in Dec. 2025 by GROK. Thanks Grok.
Initially it was just a play on the venezuela fiasco, I didn't expect much from it, but the etf started making strides.
I bought June dated calls back in Dec. 2025. I'm still holding them.
The fact that the iran conflict is happening now was just a lucky happen stance. But i have noticed that XLE did not move much or at all since the crisis started. And I have no idea why. Higher oil prices should push oil companies higher. But because the major oil companies are tied to S&p500, if the S&p drops, so does XLE.
Which is why I don't think XLE has priced in the rising oil prices.
The major oil companies will be reporting their q1 earnings in late April, and possibly early may.
Q1 covers jan. 1st to mar. 31st.
I think Q1 is going to be good, and i think guidance will be good as well since opec has been hamstring by this conflict. I'm also banking the conflict will have leveled out a lot by that point (big hopium).
So what's the play? I'm going with may 15th dated calls.
May 15th, 62 strike calls.
And a lotto play
May 15th, 70 strike calls
What you guys think