I wrote a full thesis on why AI hits white collar jobs first and credit markets next. Here’s my position.

The short version is this:

I think people have the order backwards. This AI wave does not hit the bottom of the income ladder first. It hits higher income white collar work first. Software engineers, accountants, analysts, lawyers, and a lot of other people whose salaries are supporting big mortgages, car loans, and a huge amount of consumer spending.

That is why I do not think this is just a labor story. If that income starts getting pressured at scale, the next problem is credit.

So my position is built around two parts of that view happening in sequence.

**First, the AI winners keep winning.**
That is why I am long **QQQ** and **SMH**. The buildout is real. Chips, infrastructure, and big tech benefit whether or not the downstream effects get ugly later.

**Second, if my thesis is right, volatility comes later.**
That is why I am holding **VGSH** as dry powder. If white collar job pressure turns into credit stress, I want liquid capital ready when things start breaking.

**Current allocation:**
40% QQQ
30% SMH
30% VGSH

I am avoiding businesses that are:

* heavily indebted
* low margin
* easy to replace with AI
* dependent on strong consumer spending continuing

So this is not me calling for an instant crash.

It is a sequencing bet:

AI winners run first.
White collar income gets hit next.
Credit stress shows up after that.
Then the market starts to care.

That is the trade.