I think everyone should do their best to tune out the noise in regards to the war and try to read between the lines. The stock market is quite literally being held hostage in this situation. Iran has openly said this almost word for word. They want the economic damage to be so bad that it forces the US/US allies to end the war. Everything that happens and all of the headlines that you read should be seen within this context.
For example - Iran said they are not willing to negotiate today... Why do you think that is? No, it is not because the US struck them during negotiations... It is because it scares the market - Iran wants the market to think this war will be indefinite. The strait will be closed for months, etc. If the market thinks this, it gives Iran the most leverage, therefore Iran will ALWAYS say that there is no end in sight. They will say this until the day a deal is signed and the war ends...
Likewise, trump will say the opposite. He will try to placate the markets. "We will open the strait, we will escort ships, the war is very complete, pretty much!" - If Trump can keep the markets relatively stable, it maximizes his negotiating leverage.
I'm not a military expert but this is how I think things are likely to pan out: The war will probably end in March. Things will get worse before they get better. Maybe a tanker will be struck in the strait this week trying to pass. Maybe US/NATO ships will try to setup escorts in the strait this week and be struck. If either of these things happen it will likely cause a pretty massive spike in oil (Which again is quite literally the #1 goal of Iran in this situation).
From a US perspective there are really just 2 goals at play. One is opening the strait (I'm not knowledgeable enough to know if this can be accomplished, it seems unlikely - doesn't seem that there is a feasible way to defend tankers from drone attacks at this time) - Second is securing Iran's enriched uranium. I think there is high likelihood of a US/Israeli special forces raid on one or several of Iran's nuclear sites in the coming week or two - if the US is able to secure the uranium it would remove a huge piece of leverage from the table and put Iran into a pretty delicate situation. If the US is able to both secure the uranium, and effectively open the strait, then Iran effectively has no bargaining power. Of course Iran knows this and so the US' ability to accomplish either goal is unknown.
Regardless - Broad strokes, I expect the war will get worse before it gets better. There will be additional apocalyptic/"panican" headlines in the coming 1-2 weeks. Perhaps these events will be met with a policy response like coordinated SPR releases, but ultimately the war will end this month and markets/oil will return to normal.