Target Q4 earnings call in 20 minutes. A few things stand out from this morning's press release.
No position in TGT.
Target earnings call starts in about 20 minutes. Press release dropped this morning and a few things stand out before Fiddelke speaks.
Comparable sales down 2.5% in Q4. Down 2.6% for the full year. Store traffic down 2.9%. Apparel down. Home down. The discretionary categories that differentiated Target from Walmart are where customers are leaving.
Full year net sales fell from $106.6B to $104.8B. Operating income down 8.1%. ROIC dropped from 15.4% to 13.8%.
2026 guidance is roughly 2% net sales growth with EPS flat to this year. That is a stabilization narrative not a growth narrative.
Fiddelke is an operator. 23 year insider brought in to optimize the current model. The problem is the current model is what needs rethinking. You cannot operate your way out of an identity crisis.
The one thing worth listening for today: does he name the positioning problem or describe it as an execution problem. Those are different diagnoses with different prognoses. Merchandising authority is the output of a clear brand identity. You cannot strengthen it without first deciding what Target actually is.
February showed positive comparable sales. Expect that to anchor the entire call.