Why this still looks like a transition market (not full risk-on) based on the current data

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I’ve been watching the recent move higher and I’m not convinced this is a full expansion phase yet.

Some macro data looks fine. ISM is at 52.6, so growth isn’t breaking down. The yield curve is positive (+0.60), which doesn’t scream recession stress. VIX has cooled to around 19.

But other pieces don’t line up for me.

The Russell 2000 is still down over the last 30 days. The dollar (DXY) is up about 1.3% over that same period. Risk sentiment (Fear & Greed) is still very low at 11.

In stronger expansion cycles, I usually see small caps leading, volatility compressing more aggressively, and the dollar rolling over. That alignment isn’t really there.

On the stock side, the strength feels concentrated. A few names are ripping (WDC \~+70% in 3M, FCX +60%+, semis pushing), but plenty of others are still sitting in deep drawdowns. That mix tends to look more rotational than euphoric.

To me this fits more of a transition environment markets can move higher, but they’re still selective and sensitive.

Interested how others are reading this setup.