$FLNC — This Battery Stock is Down 50% and the Market is Regarded

Alright autists, buckle up.

The Setup

Fluence Energy makes giant batteries for the power grid. Stock got absolutely cooked after earnings because their Chinese cell supplier ($AESC) might not pass new government rules that give projects a 30% tax credit.

Market is pricing this like AESC definitely fails. It probably doesn’t. That’s the trade.

Why the Market is Wrong (aka Your Thesis)

🔋 Treasury released new rules Feb 13. They’re WAY more lenient than expected. You can have 70% non-compliant cells and STILL get the tax credit in 2026. The bar is low. AESC clears it.

🏦 Siemens and Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund own 45% of the float. They haven’t sold a single share through a 50% drawdown. These are not regarded individuals.

📈 Goldman has a $28 price target. Stock is at $16.55. Goldman is sometimes right.

⚡ $5.5 billion backlog. The company isn’t going bankrupt. This is not a meme. Revenue is secure regardless.

The Catalyst

March 31st. AESC either passes compliance or doesn’t. That’s 36 days. This is basically a binary options play but with shares.

The Positions

Shares if you’re a coward.

Calls if you have conviction.

Downside

$9 if everything goes wrong. Yes that’s bad. Don’t bet rent money.

Upside

$24-28 if AESC resolves. That’s a double from here.

Not financial advice. I’m regarded too. 🚀🔋