***Executive Degenerate Summary:***
\-Canada's Warren Buffett aggressively bought - accumulated 22.2% with pace in weeks→ 13D
\-Founder is So Back → Founder Mode, premiumization and simplification are the ethos
\-Refreshed Board of Directors who are buying shares
\-Short sellers don't believe the turnaround, new data might increase short interest by +70% to \~ 56% Short
\-$500mm buy back authorized, 77% remains with 1.5 years left to go
\-Incentives → Outcomes
—------------------------------
*“Now, if there's one thing to take away from today's call, we believe that the most disruptive phase of our reset is now behind us” - Kevin Plank, UA Founder & CEO on the Q3 2026 earnings call on Feb. 6, 2026.*
—------------------------------
Under Armour (UAA & UA) is a top tier global athletic performance brand doing billions in sales, but was being priced like it is going to fade into irrelevancy and bankruptcy; until Friday’s quarter dropped and changed the game. Like much of retail, shorts have leaned against the stock for years, and rightfully so…they have been correct, but NOW this last quarter has displayed turnaround efforts are showing traction. This is the case for UAA (Class A shares), a hated and ignored stock ready for a counter attack, led by its fiery founder, Kevin Plank.
Understanding most of the audience here has the attention span of an instagram reel on 2x speed, I will cut to the chase and detail out the Executive Degenerate Summary bullets, then dive deeper if this post gets traction about the fundamentals.
These are the main factors that will / are amplify(ing) incremental inflows. Put them all together and this is a very special situation.
**-Canada's Warren Buffett aggressively bought - accumulated 22.2% within weeks→ 13D filed**
Prem Watsa is a Canadian billionaire, Fairfax Financial Holdings CEO, and commonly known as Canada's Warren Buffett. Watsa sees the potential in UAA and believes in the turnaround playbook Kevin Plank is running. He has been accumulating UAA (Class A) and UA (Class C) since December, in size. So much so that he now has 22% of UAA AND 10% of UA. The difference between the two symbols is the short interest percent and the Class A has voting rights. Class C has no vote.
This isn't some rando billionaire looking to flexa. Prem Watsa made billions in the GFC with CDS, but didn't get a Hollywood movie...bummer. While his RIMM trade was a drag, I'll just chalk that up to home country bias, he has had other bangers in the distressed space like in The Bank of Ireland… and just look at his stock OTCMKTS: FRFHF - only up. IDK how u can bet against this guy, you would have to be regarded.
As you can imagine, this large new investor will change the float dynamics. I explore that later on in this post. Keep reading.
**Founder Mode is real - this one is short and easy**
Stocks who are led by their founders do better in the stock market and have better innovation internally. “If you simply bought an equal-weight portfolio of founder-CEO firms from 1993–2002 and compared it to the broader market, it would have delivered \~8.3% more per year” - academic paper links below
After stepping down in 2020, Kevin Plank returned as President and CEO of Under Armour on April 1, 2024. Almost two years into the turnaround we JUST saw a massive beat. Look at the estimates and the actual results in the pictures. This is a well covered stock with 22 analysts, so it's not a fluke of a few analyst expectations.
Trust the plan.
Consumer brands are notoriously difficult, as taste changes, but what if there was a way to re-frame a brand, stick to your roots, and protect margins over time. The bet here is that UA is running a play very successfully executed by Ralph Lauren (RL - look at that chart). While UA is not in the same retail category as RL, Ralph Lauren successfully premiumized the brand and literal price of the product. This is the ethos of the brand transformation at UAA and Kevin is going founder mode.
*\~\~\~vibe check from the call\~\~\~\~*
“Selling so much more, of so much less, at a much higher, full, retail price.”
*Kevin Plank, UA Founder & CEO on the Q3 2026 earnings call on Feb. 6, 2026.*
“We really like to concentrate our growth at the ‘better’ and ‘best’ level \[referring to product quality\]. And frankly, those clear lines of segmentation have not been there. And as we said, going through this premiumization as we’re really focusing.”
*Kevin Plank, UA Founder & CEO on the Q3 2026 earnings call on Feb. 6, 2026.*
*\~\~He sees the problems and is attacking\~\~*
“For multiple seasons, we tried to grow by expanding the assortment, more styles, more price points, more incremental updates…. That diluted volume pressured margins and increased inventory risk……..We are addressing each of these. We are exiting low productivity styles, reducing redundant SKUs and eliminating launches”
*Kevin Plank, UA Founder & CEO on the Q3 2026 earnings call on Feb. 6, 2026.*
This is the founder mode strat and the market loved it, trading up by 19% Friday on the numbers. I think this could just be the beginning. Zoom out, this stock has done nothing for 10 years. See historical chart.
**-Short sellers don't believe the turnaround, new data might increase short interest by +70% to \~ 56% Short**
This idea has many merits by itself. The short interest dynamic is just the cherry on top in case the right tail happens, or helps it grind up. This is not primarily a short squeeze play to be clear, the short interest ratio (Total Shares Sold Short / Average Daily Trading Volume) is actually dropping as volume picks up. See charts. If the “most disruptive phase of \[UA’s\] reset is now behind us” the shorts are offsides, by miles, as UAA short shares are near 5 year highs vs a brand that is already realizing gains from its turnaround plan. The last time short interest in UAA was this high, the stock was over $20. The story is a completely different and asymmetric at these trough levels now, having taken the turnaround losses, vs then. See charts for context.
Large chunks of UAA shares are held by key players that have an interest in the long run. If you remove them from the denominator the short interest % is more like 56% for UAA vs the reported 33.5% on the WSJ and finviz. These are size players or deep rooted decision makers, here for the real turnaround. After all, *multibaggers are held, not traded*. I assume their shares are not for sale and should actually not be in the free float calculation. UAA (Class A) entrenched “diamond hands” holders broken down in the charts xls.
Public float numbers for UAA are shrinking despite WHATEVER the data services report. Prem Watsa is a key player in this short interest adjustment calcs. As a 10%+ holder who recently changed his 13G to a 13D, his shares are basically locked up for 6 months unless he wants to forfeit UAA profits to the company, which obviously he does not want to do. This is because of the Section 16 Short-Swing Profit Rule. See links below that explain.
So the free (public) float should be adjusted down, probably by next week when the new short interest numbers report. Even if they don't adjust, the true denominator is certainly smaller now that he is involved and disincentivised for 6 months from closing; if not longer for long term cap gains.
***Share Buyback Program***
“The company also announced that its Board of Directors has authorized the repurchase of up to $500 million of Under Armour's outstanding Class C common stock. Repurchases under this program may be made over the next three years through various methods, including accelerated share repurchase, open market, or privately negotiated transactions. “
Needless to say, this would be a large % of the float. While buybacks are not guaranteed, it does not hurt for there to be another bid in the stock over the next 460ish days left in the program. If executed, this is about $385mm inflows or 10% of the UAA current market cap. This would bring the new short interest to bananas levels. I don't want to speculate, you can do the math based on the sheet I attached and your DD. It's a lot, but dynamic, considering the $ impact and short interest would fluctuate too, so I'm not going to publish my estimate. And it will not happen quickly, corporates don't do that (tho Watsa did)
Being anything but long a buyback seems regarded too, u think outsiders know the business more than an insider? A founder? lol.
**-Incentives → Outcomes**
A lot of turnarounds fail. IMHO, this one has too many parties with too much size for it to fail. Moreover, the track records of those involved are impressive. But that does not mean it can't be improved.
The new board members announced on Apr 15, 2025 have not bought a lot of shares, I would imagine they need to align themselves with equity holders more. Dawn N. Fitzpatrick, Eugene D. Smith, and Robert J. Sweeney were added to the board. Of the new members, 2 bought shares, not sure what this Eugene D. Smith guy is doin…not getting onboard. I don't like that.
A few days later tho, Mohamed El-Erian, the PIMCO guy, got 100k shares of UA and 100k shares of UAA. But not a lot of money relative to the opportunity and his stack I'm guessing, which is disappointing and needs to change. If you plan on steering this ship, the CHAIRMAN of the Board should have A LOT more skin in the game. They should be in the market buying as soon as their blackout period post the last quarter opens.
**Future Catalysts**
Olympics, World Cup, MAHA/working out, Stephen Curry and Under Armour Breakup → New big athlete?,Existing athletes pop off, EMEA sales are cooking, Latin America sales mooning, extra cold winter., more turnaround traction
**Coverage:**
As displayed, there is virtually no mention of the turnaround here on WSB. One would think given the global household brand name, activist, founder, and short interest involved…but virtually no posts and massive performance
If you read this far, congrats on not succumbing to Meta’s brain rot program. DYODD. I have 200k+ shares of UAA & UA combined thru options and I want to add. u manage your own risk, as will i. Kevin Plank is a category creator and the market needs to put some respect on his stock, i think this turnaround is real and just getting started. I like the stock
edit\* this is a $490mm position for Fairfax / Prem Watsa - large as a % of their book 20% +/- from a brief DD