$WU - Western Union. A cigar butt thesis... priced like a tobacco stock without the cancer. Want to make money? Look no further regards!

Alright alright alright.

Western Union... one of the most beaten up stocks on the planet.

A destroyed share price... and a market cap of just 3 billion... but... the irresistable pros:

1. A dividend yield of 10%+... with a 40-50% payout ratio
2. A buyback program of $1 billion... that is 33% OF SHARES
3. A net annual capital return to shareholders north of 17%
4. Forecast to earn $500 million + a year for the forseeable future (PE of 6)
5. The ONLY company in the world to have the scale and universal network to exchange/send cash anywhere, anytime.
6. Even on the most conservative metrics, the thing should be valued at atleast $15 a share for the cash it spews out alone.

There are issues, but all overblown:

* Digital competition. So what? $WU is literally built on the backs of sending money to '3rd world poors' that can't even access bank accounts. Yes revenues will decline due to bleeding custom to digital competitors, but the poors will always need $WU. Africa, South America, the Middle East, India... these markets will be there for years to come.
* The Trump crackdown on illegals. So what? North America is less than 40% of $WU operations. And Trump is temporary, illegals chasing $$$ in the US are eternal.
* Revenue/profit declines. Who cares, this is a literal cigar butt thesis. If it pumps out more than $10 USD in dividends before it dies 20 years from now (+ time value of money and a decent risk premium) all is well
* Debt situation. More concerning but they are steadilly improving debt to equity ratios. This is the only genuine threat I will accept but management could solve it easy enough if they had the balls to send some of that dividend $$$ to pay down the debt.

TLDR:

Even with declining revenues, conservative cashflow valuation suggests $15+ share fair value. Risks exist but are vastly overstated. This is a cash harvesting cigar butt thesis with suggested 50% upside + massive dividends and buybacks.