Are you involuntarily celibate or unable to speak to women?
Good.
Match Group is the digital custodian of the modern male loneliness epidemic.
There’s basically no industry more guaranteed than sex. From the Supreme Gentleman to your average pajeet, people are willing to die for this shit. Match Group has a chokehold on sex, with a 45% market share in dating apps, which are increasingly essential to modern relationships.
The era of looksmax, promiscuity, hookups, hedonism, and polyamory has officially started, so how can you hedge your miserable existence?
At a 7B valuation, It generated a staggering 1.2 billion dollars in adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2025 and is currently forecasting that number to rise as high as 1.325 billion dollars by the end of 2026. With an EV of 10B, that’s 7x EV/EBITDA. PE is 12X, and P/FCF of 7X.
Bargain numbers. So the business is failing right? Management is forecasting flat revenue for 2026. Frankly, even if revenue never grew again, 10B EV for 1.2B of reliable ebitda is undervalued by 30-50%.
Revenue isn’t growing because broke boys stopped paying. Payers decreased 5% year over year. However, employed chuds picked up the slack with average amount spent going up 7%, leading to flat revenue.
I attribute the current circumstances of MTCH directly to the K shaped economy: dating is a tertiary expense, and when young men are globally broke, one of the first expenses they cut is their dating app perks.
*However,* this will eventually reverse. Not only will the K shaped economy slowly recover over time, but younger men will grow into better paying jobs, leading to more disposable income to spend with MTCH.
Long 800 shares. TP EV/EBITDA of 10x, share price of \~50 assuming current fundamentals.
