I have a quick DD on the jan 30 market crash for precious metals. GLD closed -10% and SLV -28% on a single day on Friday. Possible catalysts:
\- new fed chair expected to be responsible about protecting the dollar
\- iran war de-escalation
\- unreasonably steep run up in the last week
My read on the situation: the price is the consensus reached by many different players, most of the players in the US market are speculators without a fundamental or industrial reason for trading. They either panic sold or got margin called, deepening the crash.
In the Asian market however, there are institutions and governments who have a strategic or long term reason to buy, especially when they get a discount. They will be voting and primary driver of the monday opening price (since time zone is ahead for asia). So I am expecting a gap up and I bought both GLD and SLV calls right before close on Friday.
TL;DR: US specular’s job is to predict the asian metal market driven by fundamentals, so large moves during nyse trading hours are a false signal, serious price discovery is going to happen with American markets closed.
Going to close this on monday open whether I’m right or wrong. Let’s find out if I’m regarded 🫡
