I just posted about MSFT and the OpenAI concentration risk that’s weighing on it right now. Here are five other contrarian names I like better for 2026 setups. These got hammered in 2025 on sector weakness or execution fears, but each has concrete near-term pops from production ramps, restructurings, or demand surges.
Rivian (RIVN) trades at 18 to 19 billion market cap after EV slowdown fears. It sells at 3 to 4 times forward sales, way below Tesla. The big trigger hits early 2026 when R2 production starts in Normal, Illinois, with validation builds already rolling off the line in January and first customer deliveries expected by June. Volumes should double or more as R2 ramps on a single shift through 2026, pushing toward breakeven margins. Rivian carves a moat in adventure EVs with rugged design and off-road focus that Tesla’s Cybertruck hasn’t fully nailed yet, plus locked-in supplier costs for higher-volume profitability.
FMC sits at about 2 billion market cap after a 73% drop last year from weak ag demand and cash collection issues in South America. P/E at 4 times looks dirt cheap, 96% below peers, with earnings growth projected over 50%. Latin America rebound plus aggressive cost cuts and restructuring (shifting production to lower-cost spots) drive FCF back to 285 million in 2026. The moat comes from proprietary crop protection chemicals that generics struggle to match fully, and new direct-sales models to big growers bypass distributors for better margins and control.
Fluor (FLR) around 7 to 8 billion builds data centers and nuclear with 82% reimbursable backlog to cut risk. GPU and hyperscaler demand ramps hard in 2026, plus SMR work. The NuScale stake monetization wraps by end of Q2 2026 via structured share sales, unlocking cash for buybacks. Moat builds from reimbursable contracts that limit downside on big energy/infra projects, and long-term engineering edge in nuclear and data center construction where few players scale like this.
Ciena (CIEN) at 34 to 36 billion has a PEG of 1.24 times, 30% discount to sector. Optical networking explodes from AI data center interconnect needs. EPS upgrades run strong (15 up, zero down recently), and management guides FY26 revenue to 5.7 to 6.1 billion, up about 24% at midpoint on a 5 billion backlog. The moat strengthens as the “nervous system” for AI clusters with high-capacity coherent optics that handle massive data moves between buildings or sites, where competitors lag on speed and low-latency scale.
L3Harris (LHX) around 67 billion in defense tech gets a jolt from the Missile Solutions spin-off. The Pentagon invests 1 billion convertible preferred that turns to equity on IPO in second half 2026, creating a standalone rocket motor company while L3Harris keeps control and a leaner core. This unlocks value in higher-margin propulsion systems amid budget tailwinds for missiles and cyber/space. Moat grows from solid rocket motor production scale (from Aerojet acquisition) that’s hard to replicate fast, plus direct DoD partnership for capacity ramp.
I hope i am right.