Here’s why I’m long and why the current $3B market cap looks incredibly cheap.
Summary:
\- [$LQDA](https://x.com/search?q=%24LQDA&src=cashtag_click) (Yutrepia) is eating into $JNJ’s Uptravi ($1.81B) and [$UTHR](https://x.com/search?q=%24UTHR&src=cashtag_click) ’s Tyvaso ($1.81B). Combined TAM(Competitor's) is \~$3.62B.
\- Yutrepia is simply superior in terms of side effects and usability.
\- Based on IR and earnings calls, the total patient pool is \~22,000 (10k on Uptravi, 12k on Tyvaso).
\- Q4 data: 2,200 patients generated $148M in H2 2025. That’s an ARPP (Annual Revenue Per Patient) of \~$140k.
\- With 600 patients in the pipeline (pending starts), that’s an additional \~$80M in annual run rate. Expecting Q1 2026 revenue to be at least $110M+.
\-Current growth (2,000 prescription in Q3 -> 2,800 prescription in Q4) puts us on track for \~6,750 patients (30% M/S) by mid-2027.
\-6,750 patients = $900M+ annual revenue. At a $3B cap, this is a STEAL.