Part 1 - https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/jD7O2EVh1o
My macro thesis post got some traction so I’m doing a series on the actual positions. Starting with the biggest one.
Quick recap if you missed it: Trump pumps the market into midterms, or he breaks the system trying. Either way, defense spending wins. If you want the full breakdown on Powell, the Fed, and what signals to watch, check my last post.
This is the plays. Starting with ONDS.
**What they do:**
- Counter-drone defense. Electronic and kinetic. Only company with FCC-approved airport-ready systems in the US.
- Subsidiary Airobotics just got selected by Israel’s Ministry of Defense for the “Drone Hives” border project. Automated drone systems along Israel’s borders.
- They’ve been acquiring robotics and drone specialists in Israel, building a full platform that links aerial surveillance with ground-based systems.
**Why now:**
- Trump proposed $1.5T defense budget. Biggest ever.
- FCC banned Chinese drones right before Christmas. American companies have to fill that gap.
- Counter-drone isn’t controversial defense spending. It’s “protect our airports and borders” spending. Bipartisan. Easy to pass. FAA money, DHS money, DoD money, it all flows here.
- Investor Day January 16th. Catalyst incoming.
**The numbers:**
- Stock went from under $3 to $14+ in the last year. Up almost 400%.
- Company guiding for $110M revenue in 2026, up from $36M in 2025. That’s 3x growth.
- $840M cash on the balance sheet after recent raises. They’re not going bankrupt.
- Market cap around $3.7B. Still small for what this could become.
**The bull case:**
- Drone threats aren’t going away. They’re accelerating. Airports, borders, military bases, critical infrastructure. Everyone needs this.
- Israeli team has real world experience. These aren’t Silicon Valley guys theorizing about threats. They’ve dealt with actual drones trying to kill people.
- First mover advantage in a market expected to hit $70B by 2030 and $150B by 2036.
- If even a fraction of that $1.5T defense budget flows to counter-drone, ONDS eats.
**The bear case:**
- Stock already ran 400%. Valuation is stretched if growth doesn’t materialize.
- Backlog is only $22M right now. Need to see contracts convert.
- Dilution risk. They’ve been raising capital. More shares could come.
- If defense budgets get blocked or delayed, thesis breaks.
**How it connects to the macro:**
- In the pump scenario, defense is the safest place to be. Counter-drone specifically is bipartisan and obvious.
- In the chaos scenario, defense still works. Wars need supplies. Drone threats increase, not decrease.
- In the nuke scenario, doesn’t matter.
**Position:**
- Long shares and LEAPS. This is my biggest holding.
**Exit trigger:**
- Defense budgets stall or political chaos freezes spending. Until then, not going anywhere.
Not financial advice. I just like companies that make things that kill other things that are trying to kill us.
Part 3 coming soon.
