I look at markets mostly through yields, and I’m struggling to fully buy into this rally.
Indexes are near ATHs, but a lot of big names have been flat or drifting lower for weeks. At the same time, yields are still elevated, so it doesn’t really feel like conditions are getting easier.
A few things that stand out to me:
1. Strength feels narrow, not broad
2. Earnings expectations seem ahead of actual earnings
3. Volatility is very low despite obvious macro risks
Not trying to call a top or say “crash incoming.” I’m still mostly invested, just more cautious than usual and holding more cash than I normally would.
Is this just normal rotation under the surface?
Or are yields quietly signaling something equities are ignoring?