Obviously both stocks have performed well (Uber up almost 300% from its 2022 trough and Google doubling from its low in the last 12 months).
But with Waymo hitting over 14 million trips in 2025 and expanding to more urban centres in 2026 there’s clearly a heap of operational momentum there.
What I can’t figure out is how Uber maintains its current valuation in an autonomous driving world? Seems like we’re definitely headed that way. And currently Uber takes a cut of the drivers fee by providing access to a pool of riders, while the driver provides the car, time, bears the risk, etc. If AV’s displace drivers, and since Uber doesn’t have its own self driving tech, then it would have to licence that tech or buy the cars that had it installed.
But in that same world, the developer of that tech (Waymo / Google) would be more likely to monetise its first mover advantage and intellectual property and keep the profits for itself (no licensing).
I know you can book a Waymo through the Uber app at the moment, but I kind of see that as Waymo just testing out different routes to market alongside its own app. When it reaches scale why would a customer use Uber over Waymo if a Waymo was a cheaper, safer option (both supported by current data).
I’m sure I’m getting this wrong somehow or thinking about it wrong so keen to hear others thoughts on all this.