Posts  / BTC  / #POST-216096
REDDIT

My 2026 Thesis: Why the "Four-Year Cycle" is breaking.

Historically, we look at the halving as the only driver. But in 2026, we have a different landscape:

1. ​US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve discussions.
2. ​Institutional ETFs holding over 100% of new supply.
3. ​Lower volatility compared to tech stocks like Nvidia.

​We aren't in a 'cycle' anymore; we are in a 'structural shift.' I expect a higher floor (60k-70k) even in pullbacks. Thoughts on the diminishing volatility?