On Airforce One, Trump said "we will talk about Greenland in 2 months" after being asked by a reporter about his intentions there.
(I asked the same question here about Venezuela 2 months ago and got deleted by the mods. I hope this time they won't.)
So, assuming the US would land on Greenland and try to annex it, what would happen to global markets and stocks?
My speculation: Since NATO would basically be canceled, European countries would immediately start to arm up, heavily. They already started to prop up their military a bit, but I think this event will make them go full on militarization, and of course they would buy European. They would also seek to replace existing US equipment. So European defense stocks is the most obvious play here.
I can also imagine economic sanctions / tariffs hiked up on the US. That's mainly LNG, oil, pharmaceuticals, machinery, aircrafts. Oil companies, Boeing, Caterpillar, GE and similar stocks will be hit hard. Pharmaceuticals like Pfizer or Eli Lilly will be spared in the short-run but Europe will heavily invest to become independent from the US as well, which could be good for Novartis, Roche, Sanofi, Biontech, Bayer, FMC and the like.
In the same vein, Europe will seek to become less dependent on US software / tech and AI. Since European governments will seek fast progress, they will likely rely on successfull incumbents with the necessary talent and infrastructure, like SAP, Atos, Dassault, Siemens, Amadeus and the like.
What would you add to the list and how would you position for such an event?