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edit: This post was deleted by reddit's "bad url" filter (gay)
**TLDR: Dell caught with it's pants down, RAM drought too painful. Dell fuk.**
**Who tf is Gom\_KBull and Why should I listen?**
Back in April when SOXL was trading at 8-11 range, I took out a loan and loaded up every single LEAP i could
This was [screenshot ](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1l3fe7r/im_such_a_cxm_slxt_for_soxl/)in June and [screenshot ](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1lwinga/soxl_creaming/)in July
I've sold off all the LEAPs on these in early November, ending in a 3 bagger... although most of us profited big over that 6 month bull-run.
Back in November 10, i've put out a [warning ](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1osujpt/comment/no1glz3/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)when shit didnt feel right anymore and the bull run was likely over.
This is about all I have as far as credibility (so far).
#
# The RAM Shortage Preface
*Alot of this section is basic knowledge, you can skip if this you are already aware of the RAM shortage.*
In case you've been living under a rock, the price of RAM has been going parabolic.
This is because AI hyperscalers are offering b00k00 bucks to memory producers for their AI slop generators. So the RAM farmers said "oh shit, fuck DRAM lets make and sell a metric assload of HBM"
**There are ONLY 3 major memory producers on planet earth: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron.**
**DRAM supply ⬇️, DRAM price ⬆️**
But the reality now and going forward into 2026 is:
**DRAM supply ⬇️⬇️⬇️, DRAM price ⬆️⬆️⬆️**
[Exhibit A](https://preview.redd.it/ipoi7z2gf28g1.png?width=911&format=png&auto=webp&s=7452073b78d27be19971e4168154b1fa6b8f1cc6)
[Exhibit](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1pm948j/the_ram_i_bought_a_year_ago_is_the_fastest/) B
What does this mean?
EVERYTHING in tech is getting squeezed, especially areas that are NOT directly exposed to AI profitability. Everything tech related NEEDS memory, but as long as you're not using HBMs you're going to the second-priority lane.
Among the roadkill in this RAM storm, the juiciest looks like Dell.
# What is Dell's profitability and exposure looking in this quarter?
https://preview.redd.it/4jpc57ilf28g1.png?width=1140&format=png&auto=webp&s=4a306f91e66383b7377fccdc1b6b318c612ffeed
DELL's revenue stream essentially comes half and half for 2025.
One part is ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group). This side is from providing AI-related solutions, focusing on infrastructure (hello datacenters).
The other half is CSG, everytime you see a shiddy DELL laptop, or hardware... this is CSG side.
Dell's CSG side of the business is completely fucked (at least for 2026).
*Why?*
Because Dell is paying 4x for RAM and the cost is only accelerating. Lenovo is hoarding RAM to mitigate this
damage ( i tried to link evidence but it got flagged by reddit, but they are front page if you google "Lenovo Hoarding"), other PC and smartphone companies (MSFT/AAPL and the like) have long term contracts to LOCK IN prices for their supply. Not to mention MSFT and AAPL are already heavily in the AI game... MUCH more than DELL is.
*Does Dell have this security or anything similar?*
**NOPE.**
Up until 2025, Dell has been known to have short term supply arrangements as its key strength. Now in late 2025 to all of 2026... its their **Achilles' tendon**.
The COO (Jeff Clark) of Dell stated
>*“We’re in a very unique time. It’s unprecedented. We have not seen costs move at the rate that we’ve seen. And by the way, it’s not unique to DRAM, it’s NAND. It is hard drives, leading edge nodes across the semiconductor network,” he told analysts. “I’d categorize it as demand is way ahead of supply, and as we wade our way through that, we’re going to lean on the things that we’ve always done.”*
**This is corporate speak for**
>*"Oh shit oh shit oh shit. This wasn't supposed to happen. Oh god, we're so fuk"*
And Dell has also noted it plans to raise the prices of their products by 10-30% to offset their costs.
Here's the problem...
***WHO IS PAYING 20%+ more for Dell products?***
Think about it... would corporates (or even individuals) bite their tongue and pay >20% premium for shiddy Dell laptops and PCs? They have already laid off tens of thousands of employees, they are not in a position to easily fork over cash at a premium for bulk PCs/laptops.
There will be customers (both corporate and individual) who are more than willing to just let their existing hardware tough it out for 2-3 years until prices stabilize (hopefully)... and that's IF they don't just look elsewhere.
And personally, I believe Dell won't stop at a 30% increase. If these RAM prices continue to rise as they are, Dell will have no choice but to go farther beyond this.
But what else CAN they do? They don't have a strategy or countermeasure. This is the last resort when you're supply chain fucks you.
As for the ISG side, I admit Dell's operating margins are improving quarter over quarter... but this wont do much to outshine the pain CSG side is feeling. In the big picture, their ISG side has a very very small margin for profitability. Its not very profitable for them right now, but they HAVE TO do it to stay relevant in the AI heavy economic environment we are in.
# But what if this is already priced in?
It is to a small extent I'll admit, my thesis still holds that Wall street does not fully foresee the horror show that will unfold when DELL releases their numbers in February.
**Add onto that, because we don't foresee RAM shortage letting up in 2026-2027, but instead being just as bad or worse for future quarters... They will have to mention that in upcoming guidance.**
https://preview.redd.it/fytzlh5nf28g1.png?width=1251&format=png&auto=webp&s=b3fe04f1a9e55caec2d716dad57b26900b5ed672
# How do the Insiders feel?
**According to Quiver Quant:**
>Dell Technologies insiders have traded $DELL stock on the open market 464 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, **0 have been purchases** and **464 have been sales**.
Here’s a breakdown of [recent trading of $DELL stock](https://www.quiverquant.com/stock/DELL/insiders/) by insiders over the last 6 months:
* [MICHAEL S DELL](https://www.quiverquant.com/insiders/908724/Michael-S-Dell) (Chief Executive Officer) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 16,253,968 shares for an estimated **$2,222,753,260**.
* IV (GP), L.L.C. SLTA has made 0 purchases and 221 sales selling 6,315,957 shares for an estimated **$864,817,529**.
* V (GP), L.L.C. SLTA has made 0 purchases and 221 sales selling 6,315,957 shares for an estimated **$864,817,529**.
* [WILLIAM D GREEN](https://www.quiverquant.com/insiders/1232906/William-D-Green) has made 0 purchases and 6 sales selling 272,736 shares for an estimated **$39,695,260**.
* [ELLEN JAMISON KULLMAN](https://www.quiverquant.com/insiders/1303141/ELLEN-JAMISON-KULLMAN) sold 79,806 shares for an estimated **$12,255,009**
* [WILLIAM F SCANNELL](https://www.quiverquant.com/insiders/1554376/WILLIAM-F-SCANNELL) (Pres., Glob. Sales & Cust. Ops) sold 91,230 shares for an estimated **$10,803,456**
* [EGON DURBAN](https://www.quiverquant.com/insiders/1651403/EGON-DURBAN) sold 71,000 shares for an estimated **$9,806,520 . . .**
# External Considerations
* **The fed already booted up QE**
* *The fed started reserve management purchases (soft QE?) but its at a much smaller rate than before and only to short dated treasury bills. Beyond providing some health for smallcaps and unfucking the bond yield rates, I don't see this affecting my play for Dell in any meaningful way.*
* **AI unwind**
* This does not rely on the "AI Bubble" or "AI sentiment souring." If AI is dying through the market, this will just be added headwind for Dell.
* **What if the RAM Shortage Ends too soon to matter?**
* Its already happening, and Dell is ALREADY feeling the pain... moreso than others in its sector (likely HPQ is going through the same but it doesnt seem to be have much meat left on the bones)
* RAM production facilities are being built but will take years to start being operational to matter for this play.
**Positions:**
20x DELL Mar 20 2026 90 Put
80x DELL APR 17, 2026 75 Put
*And I will be accumulating more as we get closer to their earnings in February*
*Since Dell's earnings is in February and Micron's earnings will be in March, i might flip my winnings(if any) between the 2 dates.*
https://preview.redd.it/a60w2u0xg28g1.png?width=1256&format=png&auto=webp&s=de96f0f5fbaaf768d280756d2be46e96e8c3d874