Can lifting the export ban on the H200 chip help NVIDIA hold onto its market share in China?

Lately, the U.S. government has shown signs of easing restrictions on exporting high end AI chips to China. According to multiple media reports, the Trump administration has decided to allow NVDA to export its H200 chips to China, but under the condition that 25% of the revenue is taken as a fee.

From a market perspective, if the H200 can legally be sold in China, it could be a major step for NVDA to regain access to the world’s largest AI market ， especially since export restrictions had previously caused its market share in China to drop to almost zero. And compared to the earlier H20 chip sold to China, the H200 is a big upgrade.

However, even though it’s been approved, there are still a lot of uncertainties ，whether China will allow large scale purchases, whether there will be additional reviews, and whether concerns over security and domestic technology independence will lead to procurement limits. There are even reports suggesting that China may impose extra procedures or restrictions on H200 purchases.

I believe global AI demand is still booming and NVDA long term fundamentals remain strong. But with China rapidly pushing for its own AI chip development, will the H200 still be welcomed by the market there?

And could this be a good setup opportunity for NVDA and other U.S. chip stocks?