Futures inch up as markets price in higher odds of a December Fed rate cut

U.S. stock futures are slightly green this morning as traders lean harder into the idea that the Fed may actually cut rates this month. The rebound from Tuesday seems to be holding, even with mixed signals coming from manufacturing data, holiday spending, and the broader macro picture. The Fed narrative is shifting again: interviews for Powell’s potential successor were reportedly cancelled, which has strengthened expectations that Kevin Hassett who’s generally viewed as a rate-cut supporter could take over next year. That’s adding another layer to the rate-cut speculation already building. Market expectations for a 25 bps cut at next week’s meeting have climbed to 87%, up sharply from 63% a month ago. Today’s focus is on incoming data: ADP jobs report, expected to show very soft hiring (10k vs 42k prior). ISM services, especially the prices-paid and employment components. Industrial production also on the radar. With official government jobs data landing only after next week’s Fed decision, the market is relying more heavily on private reports than usual.