**Monday (December 1st)**
**Market Events:**
* **AWS re:Invent (Whole Week)**: Focused on Agentic AI, cloud computing, AI infrastructure, and continued support for technological networks.
* **Earnings Reports**: MongoDB (MDB)
* **High Volatility Stocks**: BMNR, CIFR
* **Automobile Transaction Data**: NIO, XPEV, LI, BYD
* **IPO Quiet Period and Lockup Events**: Impact on small-cap stocks
* **Jerome Powell Speech (21:00)**: One of the most important speeches this week from Fed Chair Jerome Powell
**Economic Data:**
1. **ISM Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 48.6)**
* Higher than expected: Improvement in manufacturing → Positive for industry and market.
* Lower than expected: Ongoing contraction in manufacturing → Negative for the market.
2. **ISM Manufacturing Employment (Forecast: 47)**
3. **Better than expected: Resilient employment → Hawkish interest rate expectations**
4. **Below Expectations: Employment Slowdown → Technology Stocks to Benefit**
5. **Overall: Manufacturing is weak, but the technology sector is more dominant due to the conference.**
**Tuesday (December 2nd)**
**Market Events:**
* **Core Tech Earnings**: CRWD, MRVL, PSTG, OKTA
* **NVDA Attends NeurIPS Conference**: (AI Chips, Autonomous Driving, Modeling and Promotion)
* **Salesforce (CRM)**: Announces Cyber Monday Data
* **Fed Bowman Speech**
* **Tech Sector Beta**: Relatively strong, sector likely to outperform the market due to high correlation with trends.
**Crude Oil Data:**
* **API Crude Oil Inventory (Forecast: -1.9M)**
* **Declining inventories are positive for oil prices, while rising inventories are negative.**
**Wednesday (December 3)**
**Market events**
**Financial Reports: CRM, SNOW, DLTR (the two most crucial companies in the cloud computing sector)**
**DealBook Summit: Featuring numerous CEOs from the technology, crypto, automotive, and finance sectors, this summit is likely to trigger significant fluctuations in news coverage throughout the day.**
**GlobalFoundries (GFS) Investor Day: Impact on Semiconductor Supply Chain Sentiment**
**Economic data (numerous, far-reaching)**
**① ADP Employment (Expected: 20K)**
**Better than expected: Upside risks to interest rates**
**Lower than expected: Technology benefits**
**② Industrial output (expected: 0.1%)**
**③ Export/Import Prices (Expected: 0% / 0.1%)**
**④ISM Services PMI (Expected: 52.1)**
**(The most important data this week besides PCE)**
**Better than expected: Strong service sector performance may lead to higher long-term interest rates.**
**Below Expectations: Easing Interest Rate Expectations Benefit Technology**
**⑤Crude oil + gasoline inventory**
**The direction of the energy sector is determined by this**
**Overall: With a dense mix of macroeconomic data and key technology earnings reports, this was one of the most volatile days of the week.**
**Thursday (December 4)**
**Market events**
**Financial Reports: HPE (Key), ULTA, DG**
**Rio Tinto (RIO) Capital Day: Impact on Metals and Commodities**
**mood**
**IMAX and DNLI Investor Day**
**Bowman speaks again**
**Economic data**
**① Initial jobless claims (expected: 218K)**
**Lower-than-expected results → Strong employment → Risk of rising interest rates**
**Higher-than-expected rates → Expectations for interest rate cuts intensify**
**② Trade deficit (expected: -65.5B)**
**Limited impact on the overall market**
**Overall: The events were relatively mild, with many days marked by lingering emotions.**
**Friday (December 5th)**
**Friday's macroeconomic data is the most important, especially the PCE.**
**Market events**
**ServiceNow (NOW) stock split vote (5:1): Sentiment-driven for the Cloud sector**
**FAO Food Price Index and Monthly Grain Report: Impact on Commodities and Inflation Expectations**
**11:00 AM - Key Macroeconomic Data (All released at the same time)**
**① Core PCE (Expected: 0.2%)**
**→ The indicator most closely watched by the Federal Reserve**
**Higher than expected: Negative for the stock market**
**Below Expectations: Strong Positive Factors Support Technology and Growth Stocks**
**② PCE (Expected: 0.3%)**
**Higher than expected → Increased inflation stickiness**
**Lower-than-expected → Positive for risk assets**
**③ Personal income (expected: 0.4%)**
**Higher than expected→support consumption**
**Lower-than-expected → Discretionary consumption under pressure**
**④ Personal expenditures (expected: 0.4%)**
**Higher than expected (>0.6%) → Showing consumer resilience**
**Lower than expected → Slower consumer momentum**
**⑤ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Expected: 52)**
**⑥ Factory orders (expected: 0.2%)**
**Overall: Friday will determine the final direction of interest rate expectations for the week, making it "the day with the greatest macroeconomic impact."**