Everytime the yield curve inverts, we get a lot of youtube videos where they fear monger using this fact. When the yield curve comes out of inversion and steepens, that's when historically, recessions have happened. The common reason cited is that the fed lowers the rate because it sees that the economy is about to break, and is followed by steepening of the unemployment numbers which eventually leads to recession.
This time however, the yield curve has come out of inversion (barely) and will either go up, or it might fall back if for some reason inflation goes up (in which case they say that the recession is assured).
Chances of Fed cutting rates by 25 bps in Dec has a probability of 85% I think but if the unemployment rate remains flat, maybe there won't be a recession. Plus we have midterms next year so administration will do its best to prevent a recession. At this point in time, based on the data we have, what do you think is most likely to happen (regarding the rate cuts, unemployment numbers, and the likelihood of a recession)?