Everyone is talking about AI causing the continued fall. It's not. It's the September jobs report.

If it was only the AI trade cracking, you'd see much more rotation into other sectors, esp. defensives. That's not happening.

The major catalyst today was an unusually strong September jobs report, released after the shutdown. Given it's one of the last major data points a hawk-postured fed will get before December on the labor market, participants are degrossing risk assets in case that rate cut is toast.

If you think the labor market deteriorated further during the shutdown, enough to force the Feds hand in December, this is a major buying opportunity.

If it didn't, you could be walking into a Fed rate pause buzzsaw.

Edit: the AI trade is cracking a little. The hyper scaler pivot to *debt* (vs. cash flow) funding capex changes the narrative AND risk/return models on the trade. That's a big deal.