I've seen this post a lot on here the last few days, and not a lot of answers.
The labor market has been trending in the wrong direction, but at 4.40% it's not "bad" and is historically still low. The Sahm Rule is sitting at 0.23, a long way from any kind of recession indicator.
GDP is going strong at 3.8%, that's not it.
Inflation is at 3%, the same level it was in January. I realize 2% is the fed's target, but it seems to be at least under control. It has dipped under 3% twice now. Both mid-2024 and mid-2025.
Then why? I think I might just have an answer.
The FMS cash level is the cash allocation held by fund managers, and as of November 2025, it has fallen to **3.7%**, the lowest point in 15 years. This low cash level, as tracked by Bank of America's Fund Manager Survey (FMS), is often interpreted as a "sell signal" because it indicates stretched risk-taking and high investor optimism. Historically, such low cash levels have been followed by negative returns in equities over the short term.