Below is my brief analysis and personal trading strategy. We can discuss any better suggestions or perspectives.
1. Timing is critical:
Due to data reporting delays, we may see a large volume of employment/CPI data between late November and early December. This means the Fed may receive a large amount of new data when it makes its decision on December 10th.
In short: Both the market and the Fed are in a semi-blind spot; market volatility may not be over yet.
2. My first signal is the 10-year Treasury yield:
Currently, the yield is around 4.1%.
If the yield quickly surges to 4.3%-4.4%, a "panic sell-off" usually occurs.
The following points can verify this:
VIX index breaks through 25
Nasdaq index falls below the 50-day moving average
New lows accelerate.
While not absolute, these signals have been reliable this year.
3. My Portfolio Management
I basically divide my holdings into three categories:
Left-side buying (40%) – Gradually adding to positions now to cope with panic selling.
Event-driven buying (40%) – Increasing buying if the Fed doesn't cut rates and the market crashes.
Trend-following buying (20%) – Increasing positions if yields fall and the VIX index stabilizes.
If the 10-year Treasury yield surges above 4.7% or the S&P 500 falls below 6200, I will reduce my holdings of high-beta stocks and hold cash.
4. My Portfolio：
Core/Stable Stocks (50-60%)
These are the holdings I sleep soundly about at night: Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), META, AVGO.
High-Growth Potential Stocks (30-40%)
These stocks have further upside potential if the AI/cloud computing cycle continues: PLTR, ALAB, APP, ORCL, VRT, CRWD.
Small-Scale, Lottery-Style Investments (≤10%)
Stocks related to long-term themes: COIN, RKLB, LEU, OKLO, CRWV, CRCL.
Intentionally controlling position size.
5. Risks I'm Watching：
Key economic data is still missing.
Tariffs may trigger inflation.
AI capital expenditure growth may fall short of market expectations.
Debt/deficit issues may push up long-term interest rates again.
Worst-case scenario: S&P 500 falls below 6000 points → Wait patiently until spring 2026.
Summary:
Market sentiment is unstable, but the AI/cloud computing/data center investment cycle remains unchanged.
I plan to gradually accumulate starting in late November, anticipating a final dip around the December FOMC meeting.
This is not investment advice, but simply sharing how I navigate this particular market environment. I'd love to know how others structured their positions before December?