Tesla gears up for Q3 deliveries… while Musk buys $1B in shares and Robotaxis expand

Tesla is set to report Q3 deliveries on October 2, and analysts are raising expectations. William Blair’s Jed Dorsheimer now projects 480,000 vehicles, up from 437,000 and well above Wall Street’s 443,000 consensus. The increase is tied to strong U.S. demand, a rebound in China, and a pull-forward of buyers ahead of expiring EV tax credits.

At the same time, Elon Musk purchased $1 billion worth of Tesla stock and the company announced an expansion of its Robotaxi program. These developments have fueled renewed bullish sentiment around the stock.

That said, not everything points up. Analysts caution that Q4 margins may face pressure as delivery growth slows and revenue from regulatory credits declines. Tesla also trades at a steep valuation, around 118× projected 2026 EBITDA, compared to the 20–25× range of most tech peers. Risks remain in the form of strong Chinese EV competition, Tesla’s reliance on China, and the “key-man risk” linked to Musk.

Across Wall Street, Tesla holds a consensus “Hold” rating, with 15 Buys, 12 Holds, and 8 Sells, and an average target of $346.57 (around 22% downside from current levels).

Position disclosure: I currently hold a TSLA futures position on Bitget. I took the trade after Musk’s share purchase and the Robotaxi expansion news, and it has been profitable so far.

What strikes me is the tension here: on one hand, bullish catalysts like stronger deliveries, Musk’s buy, and the Robotaxi rollout; on the other, valuation risks and Q4 margin concerns.

Question to the sub: Do you think Tesla’s Q3 deliveries and Musk’s $1B purchase will be enough to support the stock at these valuation levels, or are we looking at a potential correction in Q4?