*this isn't financial advice, i am just a regard that loves stocks*
**TL; DR**: idiot believes in stonk. idiot think it is going up. idiot has significant position in it (see below)
sup' gamblers, i know you missed me. if you bought in when i posted my old dd you've probably made some sweet tendies on the down low.
so here i am posting some random shit again hoping to bring you to valhallah.
this is an update to my old [DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1m3byk6/alright_regards_buckle_up_weve_open_the_door_now/), this one will be crisp and might just be boring to read. buckle up, I'll explain to you why i am long on this wonderful company that is fighting cancer for the good of humanity. like usual, be prepared for the usage of no caps.
https://preview.redd.it/zw0uk6nzzspf1.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=504fa21d7b533820dddec7d8434e1ffa4d68713f
**$NUVB (Nuvation Bio)** was founded in 2018 by **David T. Hung, M.D. Oncology biotech** developing next-generation **kinase inhibitors** for genetically defined cancers. In certain cancers, aberrant kinase signaling is **constitutively active (“always on”)**, driving uncontrolled cell growth (tumors).
**Leadership** (see [here](https://nuvationbio.com/board-of-directors/))
* \~**70–80% technical/scientific** (MDs/PhDs in clinical, R&D, operations) vs. **20–30% commercial/operational** (finance, BD, legal).
* top education for all the technical people, past record of leading end to end pharmaceutical development
* James Bond villain Dr Sauvage is here.
Fun fact:
* past success: David founded Medivation, they worked on a drug called **Xtandi** and was acquired by Pfizer for \~$14B (2016).
* failure: David had a setback leading **Axovant** amid Alzheimer’s trial failures
* that failure is often not mentioned and is also part of the bear argument.
**Financial state of affairs**
statements are pretty clear in that regard:
* good cash reserve (already the case before commercialization).
* conservative estimates, taking out exceptional R&D acquisition, they can hold for 2-3 years without any dilution in the radar. they historically burns \~$40–50M per quarter so that's in line with what i am seeing on nasdaq
* confirmed by David during the few conferences in september and his CFO.
**If I say biotech you scream? “Pipeline”**
Pipeline as seen on their [website](https://nuvationbio.com/pipeline/):
https://preview.redd.it/2a0ybu4k0tpf1.png?width=3024&format=png&auto=webp&s=aeda40b14157044bed2bb0b9f551277829e04754
The dream scenario: Good Safusidenib clinical results
* promising data with a strong clinical study as released during the HC conference (see data)
* q[2 earning report](https://investors.nuvationbio.com/news/news-details/2025/Nuvation-Bio-Reports-Second-Quarter-2025-Financial-Results-and-Provides-Business-Update/default.aspx?utm_source=chatgpt.com): “*Discussions with the FDA regarding registration-enabling trials of safusidenib are ongoing, and the Company plans to provide additional updates in the second half of 2025.*”
* during HC, David **claim** that they are in discussion with the FDA to go for a Head-to-Head trial against **vorasidenib**
* Clear intention of showing safusidenib superiority
* They could capture a \~6B market if doing so moving their valuation by a whole bunch.
at this time, **i'll only care about Taletrectinib** (commercial name IBTROZI) for this analysis.
**taletrectinib** (the grim reality):
* **oral ROS1 tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI)**, FDA approved since June 2025.
* [In June 20](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nuvation-bio-nuvb-taletrectinib-selected-104653135.html), IBTROZI (commercial name for Taletrectinib) received “Preferred Option” in updated National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancers (NSCLC).
* August earnings have shown a different [story](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/nuvb-sales-jump-1043-drug-launch): “…. driving $4.8 million in GAAP revenue, well above GAAP revenue estimates.”
* Not only that: “*According to the company, IBTROZI product revenue (GAAP) reached $1.2 million i****n just 13 U.S. business days after approval***\*, reflecting channel stocking and new patient start\*”
* \~$3.5M analyst’s revenu estimates.
* Long term data shows impressive improved PFS:
* Patient who used IBTROZI saw better results especially when they haven't been exposed to other drugs.
* Mild side-effects, pretty much whatever you see in all the medecines you probably have taken in your life.
* Competition:
* [Nuvalent](https://investors.nuvalent.com/nuvalent-presents-pivotal-data-from-arros-1)’s rolling NDA (Sept 2025) approval **could** be **2026** (priority review) or later
* When prompt about Nuvalent data, David debunked their studies: “*putting 100 robots, letting them loose on a football pitch and watching just 3 of them cross the 22 yard mark and then claiming 22 as their median.*”
**Some math** (can skip this section if lazy or go straight to conclusion)
Simple revenue model for Q3. I like to be very very conservative. I want to estimate **Q3 revenue** for IBTROZI under **worst-case** adoption, without using early launch spikes (channel stocking, free trials) and **ignoring churn** (only next quarter).
* Let **r = paid starts per U.S. business day over Q3** (**D business days**).
* If starts are uniformly distributed across Aug–Oct, average contribution within Q3 is 2 patient-months per start (way below the current 13 on purpose)
* PM = 2 \* S = 2 \* r\* D
* **Q3 revenue** is then: *R = PM/Price = 2 \* r D \* Price*\*
Using:
* Price ≈ $19.2k net/month (65% of the listed price)
* Three conservative adoption ceilings (the variable r): r = 0.3, 0.5, and 1.0 **paid starts per business day**.
**Conclusion**:
* in the worst-case where we avoid early launch distortions and yield a conservative Q3 revenue range of **\~$1.15M–$3.83M (gross)**.
* intentionally, below \~$3.5M analyst’s estimates.
* analysts considered the worst case scenario without considering revenue outside the US.
**The bears 🐻🌈**
the classical ones that you would see in pretty much every biotech company:
* **Commercialization risk**: management have no proven track record **launching an oncology drug at scale** in the U.S. (yes they did Medivation but it seems that success was too long ago for our lovely bear).
* Competition risk from NUVL, Pfizer etc. (imo this can be debunked as long as IBTROZI is *best in class*, granted this could change at any point in time)
* Pipeline uncertainty: unfortunately a very good argument. it is insanely hard to be approved, hence why my analysis is only on IBTROZI
in my quest for value, i am always on the lookout for additional insider activity.
**The bet**
* currently above and analyst estimates are not considering the market outside of the US (they get some juicy royalties in China).
* possible commercial distribution of IBTROZI in japan makes it attractive, in fact Sauvage current stock price is also not considering forward looking statements made by David during the HC Wainwright conference,
* in fact none of the news article even mentioned what he said.
you can check it [here](https://journey.ct.events/view/ea2e92e3-d524-423c-a68a-fe84140ac942).
David mentioned a few points of interests:
* forward looking statements like “looking forward to the Q3 earnings”.
* (random, totally bs 2cts) hearing him talk during previous earning calls he has historically been very conservative in his statements.
* Nuvalent study being bogus and not statistically accurate
* Going on a head-to-head trial
volume is somehow low (possible quick jump in price)
**fair value of this stock: 5-10$ easily**
my 6th sense when it comes to gambling my hard earned money, the competence of the management as well as the conferences makes me think that they will beat some kind of expectations.
especially as far as patient adoption is concerned and revenu estimation.
David, you know, could you go on an other buying spree like you did pre-FDA approval? that would be highly appreciated.
**Position \~100k in NUVB**
[Roth](https://preview.redd.it/k6cyphrt5tpf1.png?width=1486&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f6ddf862a7db389412af75b286bc16a281cfbff)
[401k](https://preview.redd.it/w8yuhb5q5tpf1.png?width=1478&format=png&auto=webp&s=c6d494f8526ea9e14ab40b28d10d84647396f22e)
[Individual](https://preview.redd.it/4neswwjw5tpf1.png?width=1490&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b5060d0fb86b1625132316e107c6a0aa37cd9b8)
[Robinhood](https://preview.redd.it/gnul6ih26tpf1.png?width=664&format=png&auto=webp&s=e7bbe1bca5af2b5e30095e1d04096451f3f0e90e)
note: before you jump at me with the what about $PACS? fret not regard, i am still in it. don't know what i am talking about? checkout my [DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1mtzwaj/should_short_reports_be_trusted_why_i_still/)
