$PACS - The DD No One Asked For But You’re Getting Anyway - Easiest 3x Bagger Minimum

**TL;DR (For smooth brains):** PACS runs skilled nursing facilities across the US. Old people aren’t going away, so demand is steady. Reposting because mods removed my earlier post for 0 reason?

* They’ve missed a pile of SEC filings (Q3 2024, FY 2024 10-K, Q1 and Q2 2025). Despite this, NYSE is letting them keep trading.
* Lenders (Truist Bank and Omega) agreed to forbearance instead of forcing default. That usually means lenders think there’s value to preserve. Default was from technicality (PACS triggered “technical defaults” because of problems tied to its warrants and its compliance certificates to lenders, the warrant certificates provided to lenders were deemed “defective” or “incorrect" most likely due to the audit progress), not because they are out of money or something.
* Stock is trading around $12 while analyst price targets are $30+. If filings get cleared, re-rate potential is big.
* Upside play is a recovery to $20–30 if they get current on filings. Minimum. **ATH was $43 in Q3 2024** before the Hindenburg short report which has not been proven right to this day. Was easily on track for $50/share+ by end of 2024, after IPO in April for $21 a share.
* Additionally, **the NYSE has also been repeatedly granting them extensions**, up until the final, November 19th 2025 deadline. This is **bullish** because the exchange would've frozen/kicked them out long ago if they were not showing reasonable progress on filing the delinquent filings.
* From their CEO in their latest investor relations release: *Based on our progress, when we become current in our SEC filings, we expect to report record revenue and Adjusted EBITDA for the first six months of 2025. We look forward to the Audit Committee completing its investigation as we seek to capitalize on the opportunities ahead to accelerate growth and drive value creation for all stakeholders.”*
* Their VERY SIMILAR competitor, who is slightly bigger, $ENSG, is trading at $160+ per share. This is incredibly undervalued, think of it as a very discounted version of $ENSG.

**What this boomer factory actually does**

PACS is a holding company investing in post-acute healthcare. Operations are decentralized: independent subsidiaries run the facilities day-to-day; corporate allocates capital, growth, and ops support. Current footprint: \~315 post-acute facilities across 17 states serving nearly 30k patients daily. The demand driver is demographics and acuity, not vibes.

Stock has been hammered and down since November 2024 where they were accused of fraud by a Hindenburg short report. Allegations have not been proven true to this day thus far. Company has been working with their independent auditors and possibly the government behind-the-scenes since then.

**NEW, latest updates in the past week with actual information:**

* Final NYSE extension granted for all delinquent filings, due November 19th 2025.
* Chief Financial Officer resigned (due to an investigation where he accepted high-value items from business partners), interim Chief Financial Officer appointed, Mark H. who is a co-founder and was previously the Chief Financial Officer from 2013 to Jan 1st. 2024.
* PACS announced in a [press release last week](https://ir.pacs.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/119/pacs-group-announces-nyse-listing-extension-and-provides-select-preliminary-interim-operating-metrics) preliminary operating metrics
* Portfolio size: As of June 30, 2025, PACS operates **316 health care facilities** in **17 states**, with **32,208 skilled nursing beds** and **2,419 assisted living beds**. That’s up by 96 facilities since Q2 2024, most added in second half of last year. [PACS Group, Inc.](https://ir.pacs.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/119/pacs-group-announces-nyse-listing-extension-and-provides-select-preliminary-interim-operating-metrics)
* CMS Rating Quality: 179 of their skilled nursing facilities (about **64.6%**) have earned a **4 or 5 Star CMS QM rating**. That’s a decent signal on quality. [PACS Group, Inc.](https://ir.pacs.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/119/pacs-group-announces-nyse-listing-extension-and-provides-select-preliminary-interim-operating-metrics)
* Occupancy: Total facility occupancy is **88.9%**, well above the industry average (\~78%). Breaking that out:
* Ramping facilities are at **86.3%**
* Mature facilities are at **95.1%** [PACS Group, Inc.](https://ir.pacs.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/119/pacs-group-announces-nyse-listing-extension-and-provides-select-preliminary-interim-operating-metrics)
* Skilled Mix: The percent of care that comes from skilled services (which generally pay better / drive margins) is \~**23.3%** in ramping facilities, \~**34.1%** in mature ones. [PACS Group, Inc.](https://ir.pacs.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/119/pacs-group-announces-nyse-listing-extension-and-provides-select-preliminary-interim-operating-metrics)
* Cash Position: PACS had **$294.2 million** in cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, 2025, up from **$157.7 million** on December 31, 2024. That gives them breathing room, assuming burn + capital needs are managed. [PACS Group, Inc.](https://ir.pacs.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/119/pacs-group-announces-nyse-listing-extension-and-provides-select-preliminary-interim-operating-metrics)
* **Interim Chief Compliance Officer, Kathy Lauer**, recently hired gun who has a decorated career in the field of healthcare compliance, regulations, and working out deals with the government: *“I am deeply impressed by the urgency and commitment of the PACS team in its efforts to enhance compliance processes for the Company’s current phase of growth and development,” said Kathy Lauer, PACS’s Interim Chief Compliance Officer. “For many years, I have worked with highly regulated healthcare companies to improve their compliance and controls. I am confident that the PACS team is taking the right steps to best position the Company for the benefit of all stakeholders.”*

It's becoming increasingly clear that they intend to file and they have been operating their business successfully during this long independent audit journey, along with implementing new safeguards and processes so that there are no issues going forward. Market seems to like this, the stock has been climbing up daily since these recent statements, after reaching it's all-time low.

It's not too late to hop on board the spaceship. Not financial advice. I don’t know you, your account size, or your pain tolerance. Read the filings, watch the calendar, check EDGAR for official filings of delinquent earnings ahead of the November 19th deadline.

**Positions**

**- 3000 shares**

**- 2027/2026 CALLS $20 STRIKE (having issue with uploading my screenshot appears as broken image?)**