If you’ve seen my last couple posts I’ve been pretty good at picking stocks near the bottom before a bull run. CRDO, NBIS, ENTG, GLXY and most recently MNDY which I did a DD on. The problem is I’m a regard and mismanaged all of them for a loss except MNDY, but I’m rolling those gains into what I present before you today: $TTD.
TTD is an ad tech company that has received a series of aggressive prison beatings in the market on its way to becoming S&P 500’s worst performing stock of 2025. They act as the Don Draper of advertising, so if you’re a company that wants to advertise on platforms outside of the walled gardens you don’t call each company individually you call TTD and they help you find the best spots for your money across the channels they have access to. Most of TTD’s slide this year is in reaction to the walled gardens (GOOG, AMZN, META) getting bigger because TTD doesn’t have access to youtube, prime video and ig.
[Shanked by Google, jumped by Amazon, and left holding META's lunch tray. ](https://preview.redd.it/j4cdi2znn4qf1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a3a6bef7e1489a97126b63dca60e2c49fe2ff07)
They aren’t taking this lying down, TTD bought back $647 mil between the first two quarters of 25 and have $375 mil left to use under that approval. Buybacks like this are bc the c suite is either putting their dicks on the table and saying “we’re undervalued” or they want to cook the books and boost eps. I don’t care either way because I think they’ll buoy the share price at the 52 wk low. The fed cuts also boost valuation models making future earnings look better for a growth stock like TTD.
The DOJ vs. Goog ad tech remedies case begins next week. Guilt for Goog has already been decided, this is now about how they will change their monopoly on digital advertising by controlling both the publisher and ad exchange. DOJ is pushing for a breakup of the stack, which would give TTD access to premium inventory and be a huge tailwind. Most of the c suite for TTD has testified at one point in this trial and the CEO said “TTD managed to win in an unfair market, imagine what we could do in a fair market”. Well I’m putting my $$ on CEO Jeff Green’s imaginings.
[Got flamed last time for posting after my position was already up so this is hot off the press.](https://preview.redd.it/m6lu0fd3o4qf1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=7d54a33d6a6fbefca78b474a478c3e828bb6b776)
Final considerations are for their new AI tools and the possibility of M&A. Kokai and OpenPath will be fully launched by the end of this year, these are meaningful next gen innovations. Brands using Kokai so far have seen a 43% lower cost per household reach on ads and OpenPath has led to 39% bump in CTV revenue for clients like Vizio. If the remedies case forces Goog to make major changes, the rest of big tech could say fuck it and buy TTD given the current depressed valuation, giving better reach in the open internet and picking up a competitor. Big media like Disney or Roku could also integrate or partner to control supply path and reduce dependency, like what we just saw with Amazon and Netflix.
Also incredibly small flyer chance TikTok’s walled garden is opened up in the US acquisition giving TTD further opportunity.